Vincent Odhiambo Otieno

Doctor of Philosophy in Population Studies
Dr. Vincent

Born in Kisumu county; Nyakach Sub County in 1981

Went Lisana Primary School, Nyabondo High and Kisumu Boys high School.

BSc Mathematics and Chemistry (KU),  MSc and PhD in Population Studies(UoN)

Worked within the Eastern, Central and Southern region within the Non-Governmental Organizations sector. Currently lecturing at the University of Nairobi School of Public Health (SPH) and Institute of Tropical and Infectious Diseases (UNITID)

Project Summary

Fertility Preference and its implication on fertility Transition -A case of Selected Eastern African Countries

Using various demographic measures, neo-Malthusian adherents deduce that rapid population growth strain countries’ development. With most parameter measures utilized to draw such conclusions, considerably less of the same has been achieved through fertility preference. The goal of this study therefore was to utilize fertility preference as a pathway to explaining the underlying fertility transition in Eastern Africa. This emanated from two fundamentally interrelated concepts observed in a number of developing countries namely the extent to

which changes in fertility levels are due to changes in fertility preference and the extent to which the observed fertility changes result from the ability of women to implement their fertility desires. The study utilized pooled DHS data collected overtime from selected countries namely, Kenya, Rwanda Tanzania and Uganda. A descriptive statistical analysis and a General Linear Module were the main analytical methods utilized, followed by the computation of the index of implementation as well as the decomposition of fertility trends to assess the absolute contribution of each of the fertility preference measures to the prevailing fertility changes.


The unit of analysis being the women of reproductive age within the sub national regions, results reveal that fertility transition is indeed on course amid glaring inequalities and significant variations in attitudes towards child bearing. This warranted two conclusions: first is the slow pace of decline from weak facilitating social programs amid high demand for large families. Second is that accelerated fertility decline is optimal when there’s both substantial decline in desired fertility and increased level of preference implementation. The uniqueness of each of the sub national regions calls for a targeted policy strategy to mop up the under performing regions. A further micro focus to help clear the corresponding ecological fallacy commonly associated with macro studies as well as the continuous advancement and adaptation of this formulation would be essential